In a recent Financial Times Business Insight article, Anjli Raval highlights a profound challenge facing today’s leaders, echoing the famous Mike Tyson quote: “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.” It caught our attention because we’ve long had a rather contrarian take on scenario planning – thinking of it more as a way to build strategic resilience rather than to accurately model an uncertain future.

This vivid reminder comes at a moment when the world is dealing with significant supply chain fragility, regular geopolitical shocks, AI regulation jitters, and trade war skirmishes that consistently erode the plausibility of any single forecast. The lesson is clear: scenario planning is not an exercise in prediction; it is an organisational training ground for the unknown.

Scenario planning: beyond forecast accuracy

Most FP&A discussions treat scenario planning as a suite of forecasts – best case, base case, worst case – each with its implicit or overt probability weighting. Yet, as Raval notes, the real value lies not in assigning precise odds to each outcome but in conditioning teams to ask “What if?”, especially when circumstances diverge sharply from expectations. The idea is to build a set of tools and strategies that are ready to use when the unexpected happens so that you can act quickly and effectively.

This distinction transforms scenario planning from an academic exercise into a dynamic rehearsal. Rather than debating the most likely inflation rate, for example, FP&A teams should stress-test individual assumptions – currency volatility, input-cost shocks, sudden regulatory shifts – and ensure decision-makers can enact pre-agreed tactical responses. These might include things like securing liquidity buffers, diversifying suppliers, and refining customer-segment forecasts, to name a few.

This is especially prudent in a 2025 context where the range of potential shocks has never been broader. The conflation of political and economic risk means that yesterday’s playbooks – rooted in linear extrapolations – are dangerously obsolete.

Against this backdrop, scenario planning must evolve from annual budgeting rituals into an ongoing, real-time capability. Driver-based architectures – where key inputs such as commodity costs or consumer confidence indices flow directly into profit-and-loss and balance-sheet impacts – enable non-technical users to spin up fresh scenarios in minutes. This constant rehearsal ensures that when the unexpected happens, the organisation can flip to a predefined strategic framework, execute immediately, and buy time to devise more nuanced strategies.

Embedding scenario planning as an organisational capability

This concept is easily understood and appreciated in turbulent times like we are in now, or indeed what has become the canonical example of uncertainty: the COVID-19 pandemic (Read some of our writing from that period here and here.) But it’s often too late to start thinking about this when you need it.  This is something that needs to be built, nurtured, and solidified during the good times, so that you can rely on it when things go wrong.

We’ve written quite a lot about how to achieve this practically for the first time, or even how to take your existing scenario planning to the next level in a recession or otherwise. But truthfully, that’s the easier advice to give because the best practices are well established, and our technology can enable it quickly and effectively. But the unappreciated work comes in ensuring that the cultural shift happens. It needs to become a recognised and appreciated part of how you do business.

In working with our clients, we typically recommend three pillars for embedding scenario planning as an organisational muscle:

1. Executive Sponsorship: Leadership must champion scenario rehearsals as performance-critical. Incorporate scenario drills into quarterly business reviews, not just annual budgeting. 

2. Cross-Functional Involvement: Bring supply-chain, sales, IT, and risk teams into the modelling process. Varied perspectives enrich scenario design and accelerate decision-making when pivots are needed.

3. Continuous Learning: After each scenario exercise – whether hypothetical or triggered by real events – conduct “after-action reviews.” Document lessons, refine assumptions, and update playbooks accordingly.

These three pillars are critical for success. When organisations treat scenario planning as ongoing professional development rather than a tick-box exercise, they cultivate a workforce attuned to ambiguity and ready to respond. And that’s what will set them apart when encountering the murky waters.

How Apliqo powers agile scenario planning

As this is how we think about scenario planning, Apliqo’s software solutions are expressly designed to support this high-velocity approach:

• Driver-Based Modelling: Pre-configured templates allow FP&A teams to link external indicators (FX rates, oil prices, interest rates) with internal cost and revenue drivers.

• Collaborative Workflows: Version control, task assignments, and commentary features embed scenario-building within a single, auditable platform – eliminating spreadsheet chaos.

• Rapid What-If Analysis: Ad-hoc scenario sheets can be spun off existing models in seconds, enabling immediate stress tests without disrupting the master forecasts. 

• Visualisation & Storytelling: Integrated dashboards translate complex model outputs into intuitive charts and narrative summaries, empowering boards to grasp risks and opportunities at a glance.

By coupling the computational horsepower of IBM Planning Analytics / TM1 with Apliqo’s user-centric design, companies can maintain an “always-on” scenario-planning discipline. This continuous readiness transforms the finance function from a rear-view mirror reporter into a proactive strategic partner.

From survival to advantage

The impasse between “wait-and-see” paralysis and “act-now, regret-later” has no comfortable middle ground. As the FT piece distils, the goal of scenario planning isn’t perfect foresight but preparedness for the unforeseen.

Apliqo’s proven technology underscores one truth: those who train for volatility can not only survive but seize upside in disruption. In challenging times, scenario planning is less about prediction and more about building an organisation that can adapt, respond, and ultimately thrive – no matter what punches tomorrow delivers.

To discover what this could look like for your organisation, get in touch with our team today.